If they are there, where are they?
February 13th, 2009 Posted in News“If they are there, where are they?” – The Fermi Paradox and a contradiction faced by those considering the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence. Even though there is still a lack of evidence, advances in astronomy over the last fifty years have allowed a further in-depth analysis of the problem.
At the University of Edinburgh, researchers led by Duncan Forgan have concluded there to be at least 361 alien life forms out there – and possibly as many as 38,000.
The study considers the stellar and planetary properties required to form a solar system able to support life, and the biological properties that determine the likelihood of this life becoming an intelligent civilisation. Using this information, a computer model has been designed to simulate alien worlds and examine three scenarios of how life could develop:
- The Rare Life hypothesis – This assumes it is difficult for life to originate, but once it has it can easily evolve into intelligence. This gave a result of 361 intelligent civilisations in the galaxy.
- The Tortoise and Hare hypothesis – This assumes that life originates easily on many planets, but it is difficult for it to evolve into intelligence. Analysis of this scenario suggested there to be 31,513 other forms of life to exist.
- The Panspermia hypothesis – This is the possibility that life can spread from one originating planet to many others by asteroid impacts. This scenario gave a result of 37,964 intelligent civilisations in existence.
Regarding the likelihood of these estimates being accurate, Forgan said: “It is important to realise that the picture we’ve built up is still incomplete. Even if alien forms do exist, we may not necessarily be able to make contact with them, and we have no idea what form they would take.”
-Katherine Staines
